Short‐term propagation of rainfall perturbations on terrestrial ecosystems in central California
Identifieur interne : 000073 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000072; suivant : 000074Short‐term propagation of rainfall perturbations on terrestrial ecosystems in central California
Auteurs : M Nica García [Espagne, États-Unis] ; J. Litago [États-Unis, Espagne] ; A. Palacios Rueta [Espagne] ; J. E. Pinz N [États-Unis] ; L. Ustin Susan [États-Unis]Source :
- Applied Vegetation Science [ 1402-2001 ] ; 2010-04.
English descriptors
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Abstract
Question: Does vegetation buffer or amplify rainfall perturbations, and is it possible to forecast rainfall using mesoscale climatic signals? Location: Central California (USA). Methods: The risk of dry or wet rainfall events was evaluated using conditional probabilities of rainfall depending on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The propagation of rainfall perturbations on vegetation was calculated using cross‐correlations between monthly seasonally adjusted (SA) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and SA antecedent rainfall at different time‐scales. Results: In this region, El Niño events are associated with higher than normal winter precipitation (probability of 73%). Opposite but more predictable effects are found for La Niña events (89% probability of dry events). Chaparral and evergreen forests showed the longest persistence of rainfall effects (0‐8 months). Grasslands and wetlands showed low persistence (0‐2 months), with wetlands dominated by non‐stationary patterns. Within the region, the NDVI spatial patterns associated with higher (lower) rainfall are homogeneous (heterogeneous), with the exception of evergreen forests. Conclusions: Knowledge of the time‐scale of lagged effects of the non‐seasonal component of rainfall on vegetation greenness, and the risk of winter rainfall anomalies lays the foundation for developing a forecasting model for vegetation greenness. Our results also suggest greater competitive advantage for perennial vegetation in response to potential rainfall increases in the region associated with climate change predictions, provided that the soil allows storing extra rainfall.
Url:
DOI: 10.1111/j.1654-109X.2009.01057.x
Affiliations:
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Estación Biológica de Doñana (CSIC), Americo Vespucio s/n, ES–41092 Sevilla</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region nuts="2" type="communauté">Andalousie</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">Espagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Depto. Desertificación y Geoecología. Estación Experimental de Zonas Áridas (CSIC), General Segura 1, ES–04001 Almería</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region nuts="2" type="communauté">Andalousie</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing. University of California, Davis</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Litago, J" sort="Litago, J" uniqKey="Litago J" first="J." last="Litago">J. Litago</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing. University of California, Davis</wicri:cityArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">Espagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Depto. de Estadística y Metodos de Gestion en Agricultura. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Agrónomos, ES–28040 Madrid</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region nuts="2" type="communauté">Communauté de Madrid</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country wicri:rule="url">Espagne</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Palacios Rueta, A" sort="Palacios Rueta, A" uniqKey="Palacios Rueta A" first="A." last="Palacios Rueta">A. Palacios Rueta</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">Espagne</country><wicri:regionArea>Depto. Silvopascicultura. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Montes, ES–28040 Madrid</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region nuts="2" type="communauté">Communauté de Madrid</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country wicri:rule="url">Espagne</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pinz N, J E" sort="Pinz N, J E" uniqKey="Pinz N J" first="J. E." last="Pinz N">J. E. Pinz N</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>NASA‐Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Branch, Greenbelt, MD 20771</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="no comma">E‐mail Jorge_Pinzon@ssaihq.com</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ustin Susan, L" sort="Ustin Susan, L" uniqKey="Ustin Susan L" first="L." last="Ustin Susan">L. 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Location: Central California (USA). Methods: The risk of dry or wet rainfall events was evaluated using conditional probabilities of rainfall depending on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The propagation of rainfall perturbations on vegetation was calculated using cross‐correlations between monthly seasonally adjusted (SA) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and SA antecedent rainfall at different time‐scales. Results: In this region, El Niño events are associated with higher than normal winter precipitation (probability of 73%). Opposite but more predictable effects are found for La Niña events (89% probability of dry events). Chaparral and evergreen forests showed the longest persistence of rainfall effects (0‐8 months). Grasslands and wetlands showed low persistence (0‐2 months), with wetlands dominated by non‐stationary patterns. Within the region, the NDVI spatial patterns associated with higher (lower) rainfall are homogeneous (heterogeneous), with the exception of evergreen forests. Conclusions: Knowledge of the time‐scale of lagged effects of the non‐seasonal component of rainfall on vegetation greenness, and the risk of winter rainfall anomalies lays the foundation for developing a forecasting model for vegetation greenness. Our results also suggest greater competitive advantage for perennial vegetation in response to potential rainfall increases in the region associated with climate change predictions, provided that the soil allows storing extra rainfall.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Espagne</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Andalousie</li><li>Californie</li><li>Communauté de Madrid</li><li>Maryland</li></region></list><tree><country name="Espagne"><region name="Andalousie"><name sortKey="Garcia, M Nica" sort="Garcia, M Nica" uniqKey="Garcia M" first="M Nica" last="García">M Nica García</name></region><name sortKey="Garcia, M Nica" sort="Garcia, M Nica" uniqKey="Garcia M" first="M Nica" last="García">M Nica García</name><name sortKey="Litago, J" sort="Litago, J" uniqKey="Litago J" first="J." last="Litago">J. Litago</name><name sortKey="Litago, J" sort="Litago, J" uniqKey="Litago J" first="J." last="Litago">J. Litago</name><name sortKey="Palacios Rueta, A" sort="Palacios Rueta, A" uniqKey="Palacios Rueta A" first="A." last="Palacios Rueta">A. Palacios Rueta</name><name sortKey="Palacios Rueta, A" sort="Palacios Rueta, A" uniqKey="Palacios Rueta A" first="A." last="Palacios Rueta">A. Palacios Rueta</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Californie"><name sortKey="Garcia, M Nica" sort="Garcia, M Nica" uniqKey="Garcia M" first="M Nica" last="García">M Nica García</name></region><name sortKey="Litago, J" sort="Litago, J" uniqKey="Litago J" first="J." last="Litago">J. Litago</name><name sortKey="Pinz N, J E" sort="Pinz N, J E" uniqKey="Pinz N J" first="J. E." last="Pinz N">J. E. Pinz N</name><name sortKey="Ustin Susan, L" sort="Ustin Susan, L" uniqKey="Ustin Susan L" first="L." last="Ustin Susan">L. Ustin Susan</name><name sortKey="Ustin Susan, L" sort="Ustin Susan, L" uniqKey="Ustin Susan L" first="L." last="Ustin Susan">L. 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